This article is part of The Housing Fix, a series of dialogues that explore the intricacies and ways of tackling the affordable housing crisis in various cities around the world.
A drive from the International Cairo airport to Greater Cairo takes you through groves of crans in real estate oases in the middle of the desert. Those in Western Cities who claim “building more homes” will solve their housing crisis would look at these developments with envy. Yet, many of these areas remain nearly vacant, resembling ghost towns. In a city of 23 million residents with a high demand from people struggling to put a dignified roof over their heads, buildings in new settlements are still waiting for people to move in.
In Cairo, the true issue of affordable housing becomes evident: fair distribution. Some individuals pay as little as one US dollar in monthly rent while others speculate on empty apartments in an effort to sell them at a profit. The state has been grappling with policies aimed at balancing supply and demand, especially for those in need of housing. Egypt’s recent approval of a new law governing old rents (Law 164/2025) has sparked a significant debate in the country. This law will lead to the eviction of hundreds of thousands of families and businesses.
I sat down with three experts to discuss potential solutions to the housing crisis in Cairo: Mr. Khalil Ma’wadh, legal researcher and Chairman of Zad Association in Al‑Karimat village, Giza; Mahmoud Al-Gendy, media advisor to the Real Estate Developers Association in Egypt and Editor‑in‑Chief of the online publication Iskan Masr (Egypt Housing); and Dr. Murad Munir, certified accountant and housing and real estate researcher.
What follows is a lightly edited transcript of a conversation in Arabic that took place in late August 2025, over a video call.
Hanaa Hamad: Many units have been built in Cairo and its suburbs, yet occupancy rates are low. Why?
Murad Munir: Today, there are approximately 63 million housing units in Egypt, compared to 26 million households, which includes 3 million residential and commercial units rented out under the old rental laws. Many of these are closed or underutilized. However, there is also a significant share of new units that are “frozen,” in other words, speculatively parked.
Someone buys an apartment, but it remains closed and unfinished for three or four years. In Egypt, most developers deliver an apartment with just the basic core, and the buyer takes over the painting, flooring of bathrooms, and other finishing touches. So, essentially, buyers make a down payment and pay installments over a year, with the hope of selling the apartment at premium prices, which are often unaffordable for most people in Cairo.
Additionally, some people are risk-averse when it comes to renting. While laws regulate the relationship and contracts that support the owners, if owners face problems with tenants who refuse to leave or fail to pay rent, the judicial process can be lengthy and result in high costs for landlords.
Another reason for low occupancy rates is that many buildings are counted as “under construction” for years because the developer ran out of money to continue construction or had a dispute with a partner. There are no laws regulating this situation.
No one benefits from these “wasted investments” that contribute to a housing crisis in Cairo and other cities in Egypt. I think all under-utilized units should be brought into the economy to yield a return on investment. Unfortunately, the return is primarily a capital gain from buying and holding units, rather than an income-producing investment, as is the case in other countries. The number of units offered to those who genuinely need them is minuscule compared to the total number of units under construction.
Currently, housing units “under construction” and those inhabited by the owner are exempt from tax. However, property tax must be paid on all other units based on their value, unless the value is below a certain amount, in which case it is also tax-exempt. Legislators could change the tax law to require owners to pay property taxes on all their properties.
In New Shorouk City, occupancy rates are less than 10%, with the remaining 90% of the properties vacant. We face an inevitable real estate bubble. The market cannot self-regulate without strong legislation and new policies. Some argue that this kind of housing crisis doesn’t have an impact in Cairo because the number of mortgage credits granted to people in Egypt is low. But the bubble’s consequence is stagnation.
Access to mortgage-based installment purchases is limited in Egypt mainly because most properties are not officially registered with the Real Estate Registry. Owners have always been reluctant to register their properties because the process was very bureaucratic and involved high taxes. In 2022, the government passed a new bill to regulate and facilitate property registration, which includes the option to register without paying the full tax all at once.
Mahmoud El‑Gendy: The common notion of a bubble is widespread mortgage defaults (e.g., 2008 U.S. real estate crisis, unsustainable housing price growth driven by easy access to mortgages). In Egypt, mortgage use is also very limited due to strict conditions (fully finished units, final title). Most units are sold with informal contracts and powers of attorney in place. An official statement indicated 90% of units aren’t registered. I would suggest amending the law to expand the registration option to more units (such as semi-finished ones). That will encourage people to buy property because they will have access to mortgage financing, which will help ease the housing crisis.
Murad Munir: There is not only oversupply in the market and a mismatch between offer and demand, but also a price bubble that creates the housing crisis in Cairo. While mortgages are scarce, installment plans run up to 15 years, increasing the client’s cost. Speculators benefit because, after a few installments, they sell at an overpriced rate, and the new buyer continues the plan. But this model is collapsing. We’ve reached real saturation, especially for properties bought when the dollar hit EGP 70; now that it’s lower (around EGP 50), speculators no longer want premiums; they just want their money back.
Worse still, similar speculative behavior has emerged in state-subsidized social housing, including under-the-table sales, profiteering from price differences, and transferring units to new beneficiaries. The state is trying to combat this with eligibility verification during the no‑transfer period (up to 7 years).
Hanaa Hamad: Who is buying? Who will occupy all these units in the market?
Mahmoud El‑Gendy: In Egypt, we’re talking about 13 million closed units, in addition to 10 million more, mostly private property. Most developers build luxury housing, primarily for investment, which is only affordable to a narrow segment of the population (approximately 100,000 clients annually from a population of over 100 million in Egypt).
The government has launched subsidized social housing (about 600,000 units borne by the state). For social housing, low-income applicants submit proof of income, proof of non-ownership of another home, and documentation of their social circumstances to ensure that eligible beneficiaries receive the necessary units.
Another model of affordable housing is the “free market offering,” regulated by the Housing Ministry, which makes units available at realistic prices (distinct from private market prices) to anyone. However, this model is problematic. As soon as the government releases the units on the Ministry of Housing and Housing & Development Bank websites, realtors and agents use software tools with multiple different IDs to seize them. Applications are processed online on a first-come, first-served basis, rather than through a lottery system. Then they would sell them to the beneficiaries at a profit. There’s also a free‑market offering for expatriates (Egyptians abroad) priced in dollars.
Murad Munir: In the 1960s, amid wars and economic strain, a rent committee reduced rents by more than half, leading owners in the 1970s to stop building and renting. This created the slums crisis and peri‑urban construction, which many rural migrants coming to Cairo resort to. But this segment of Cairo’s population can’t afford any of the properties, either subsidized by the government or built by private developers.
Khalil Ma’wadh: We often hear of units being offered in the Al‑Karimat neighbourhood in Giza. Is it reasonable that a head of household who can’t even roof his home to protect his family from rain and dangers could pay amounts he may never have amassed in his life? Some things are simply illogical.
Hanaa Hamad: What is the government’s policy to address the housing crisis in Cairo?
Murad Munir: Legislation is what can regulate the market, and this complex situation of supply surplus and resource waste. First, we need robust laws that tax luxury housing. Additionally, the state can also contribute land at low prices to developers in exchange for units affordable to various social classes.
Unfortunately, government officials tend to downplay the problem, claiming that there is no housing crisis or no bubble, and they have been talking about “exporting real estate” for 12–13 years. The core question is, why would someone buy in Cairo? A foreign buyer’s primary goal is investment, to keep money circulating, not to pay, freeze the asset, and leave. We need mechanisms that attract foreign investors.
Some members of Parliament are developers, which creates a conflict of interest. If we’re truly building the country, we must redirect what seems like wasted investments into industry and other productive sectors.
Mahmoud El-Gendy: Egypt attempted the National Housing Program in 2005 and 2008, where the state provided land to developers in exchange for the construction of low-income units at fixed prices. Due to weak oversight and non-enforcement of legal conditions, units priced at EGP 95,000–105,000 (approximately $ 2,000) are now being sold for millions.
Additionally, the Real Estate Developers Law has been under discussion in Parliament for several years without making progress. One solution to the crisis would be for the state to cap annual housing unit production, which would increase demand for idle/vacant units, for instance, in Cairo. Instead, the state started competing with private developers through financing and building massive projects. In 2025, the government plans to offer 400,000 units alone, despite unit sales by both private developers and the government not exceeding 125,000 units annually.
There is the rent‑to‑own units mechanism. This is a state-provided program for low-income individuals that enables them to rent housing units for a specified period (usually 7 years) at a reduced monthly rental price subsidized by the Social Housing Fund. At the end of the rental term, the beneficiary can own the housing unit under specific conditions. This system aims to facilitate home ownership and ease the burden on young people and low-income families by paying a small portion of their income as monthly rent, while the state covers the remaining rental value as cash support. However, this model is not at a sufficient scale, and the people who profit from it are still very few.
Khalil Ma’wadh: In 2019, the state-backed NGO Hayah Karima (Decent Life) launched an initiative to build housing for low-income families in villages located in provinces outside Greater Cairo. But the criteria and eligibility for those houses were unclear to local residents.
Civil society’s role has grown significantly in providing humane shelter for the disadvantaged. In Giza, our association builds roofs and secures doors and windows for rooms, bathrooms, and homes, basic family needs for a humane shelter. A problem we faced was that donors refused to take responsibility for building concrete roofs, so we now only build wooden roofs. The poorest in villages need social considerations and to be included in state laws and decisions on safe housing.
As part of the state’s legislative efforts to address the housing crisis, the recently passed Old Rent Law No. 164/2025 is a step in the right direction, whether people in Cairo like it or not, to improve the challenging landlord-tenant equation.
Murad Munir: After 13 years of research and debate, we have a law regulating old rents. When President El-Sisi took office 11 years ago, he initiated legislative reform by establishing the Legislative Reform Committee to prepare urgent files for Parliament. The late Justice Saber Ammar chaired it; I submitted a study and later learned that he had held a four-hour meeting with the President on legislative priorities, including the old rent back in 2014. The issue was urgent then as it is now. The old rent file is complex; we can’t blame landlords or tenants exclusively. Over time, the problem became more difficult. Law No. 164 is not perfect, but it sets an endpoint.
It’s illogical that someone living in Cairo, with all services and government offices, pays 5 or 9 EGP (less than 1 USD) monthly, while a new buyer is told to move to desert cities far from everything, with apartment prices of 8 million EGP (approx. 167,000 USD).
We shouldn’t frame this as two opposing camps: both are Egyptian citizens. The old rental system is out of step with today’s times. Under the new rent, a family with an income of EGP 18,000 (approximately $ 378) may need to pay EGP 15,000 in rent, often with harsh one-year contracts. Under the old rent system, someone may pay EGP 3, sometimes not pay at all, deposit the money in court, keep the apartment closed, or own other units.
We need to integrate the new law into the existing legal framework to align with the current era. Balance improves when we reintegrate the old-rent stock, previously cited as 3 million units, into the market, creating a breakthrough: fairer contracts, more supply, less pressure on those borrowing to pay rent, and fewer people exploiting old-era leases of EGP 3 or 7.
Mahmoud El‑Gendy: Part of the problem traces back to rent controls instated under Gamal Abdel Nasser’s socialist presidency, which forced owners to rent at fixed prices, discouraging new construction. Another issue: many old-lease tenants own other properties or villas, yet continue to rent the old-lease unit. This is unfair to landlords, regardless of the upfront payments tenants made at the time of signing. Meanwhile, market rents outside the old system have become very high and unaffordable for many.
The new law conducts surveys to identify unit holders who own other properties or those living elsewhere while keeping a closed old‑rent unit. Those who are eligible would get an alternative unit, which is a fair provision.
However, I disagree that releasing these units will revive the market: many buildings are dilapidated and unsuitable as a replacement inventory. I don’t think they’ll have a major impact even after the legal grace periods end (the law applies after 7 years for residential units, and 5 years for commercial units).
Murad Munir: Even if some units need renovation or restructuring, they can be repurposed for higher returns. For example, a Zamalek Corniche building overlooking the Nile can be converted to a hotel. The stock is likely to have declined from 3 million in 2017 to approximately 2.5 million in 2025 due to demolitions or settlements between owners and tenants. Of these, about 1.8 million are residential and 1.2 million commercial, with roughly 450,000 residential units closed.
Another issue is density: 82% of these units are located in Greater Cairo (Cairo, Giza, Qalyubia), as well as Alexandria. There’s already high population density in these governorates, and people insist on staying in overcrowded areas, refusing to move to new desert cities. Not in vain. The state must build productive towns, not just consumer ones, cities that attract investment, tourism, and jobs, if it wants to decongest Cairo.
The old rent system fails social justice: imagine a plumber working in upscale Heliopolis who knows residents pay EGP 9 rent in prime locations while he lives in a shack paying EGP 4,000–5,000? He grows resentful; it’s not his fault that he wasn’t around when socialist laws redistributed wealth decades ago. Will this ever happen again? No. So balance is needed.
When discussing the social dimension, we must consider all aspects of society, including both owners and tenants. The state must provide decent housing for low‑income groups.
Amidst a surplus supply and concentrated demand, legislation, fair distribution, tailored housing typologies, and building productive, connected communities — rather than just empty cities — are essential to tackling the housing crisis in Cairo. At the same time, decent, humane housing for low‑income and marginalized groups must be ensured by the state, with mechanisms that curb speculation and bring idle units into productive use.
This article is published in collaboration with Egab.
